Research on spatial state conversion rule mining and stochastic predicting based on CA

摘要

Spatial dynamic prediction in GIS is the process of spatial calculation that infers the thematic maps in future according to the historical thematic maps, and it is space-time calculation from map to map. There is great application value that spatial dynamic prediction applied to the land planning, urban land-use planning and town planning, but there is some imperfect in method and technique at present. The main technical difficulty is excavation and expression of spatial state conversion rule. In allusion to the deficiency in spatial dynamic prediction using CA, the method which excavated spatial state conversion rule based on spatial data mining was put forward. Stochastic simulation mechanism was put into the prediction calculating based on state conversion rule. The result of prediction was more rational and the relation between the prediction steps and the time course was clearer. The method was applied to prediction of spatial structure change of urban land-use in Jinan. The Urban land-use change maps were predicted in 2006 and 2010 by using the land-use maps in 1998 and 2002. The result of this test was rational by analyzing.