Simulation and Modeling of Elevation Variations of Radial Sand Banks in Jiangsu Province Based on Spatio-temporal Correlation Analysis

摘要

Jiangsu province, which has vast population andlimited land, is facing with land resources shortage. However, theoffshore radial sand banks provide huge potential land reserveresources. But, epeirogenic movement and the variation ofelevation of the radial sand banks are quite frequent in coastalarea of Jiangsu province; Hence, mastering law of the variationof elevation of the radial sand banks is the precondition ofmaking use of the radial sand banks scientifically. This paper hasused remote sensing method to build a series of DEMs of radialsand banks which has constant temporal intervals, and thensimulated the variations of elevation of sand banks by using theseDEMs. For non-spatial data, the variation law of phenomena canbe revealed by time series models. However, for spatial data suchas the sand bank elevation, due to the existence of spatialdependence, goes against the hypothesis that the data isindependent of each other in classic statistical analysis. Thatmeans, the elevation of a point on sand bank not only dependentson its own historical values, but also affected by its neighbors.Therefore, with comprehensive consideration of time and space,we build a forecasting model based on spatio-temporal relationanalysis to simulate the elevation variations of radial sandsbanks. Then verify the result by using the elevation in the nexttime interval. Results show that this method which this paperproposed can satisfy the requirement of mesoscale applications.