3 investment scenarios for generation IV nuclear reactors

摘要

The article aims at widening the scope of MIT report « The future of nuclear power after Fukushima » (2012) to the European electric supply by studying the conditions of industrial development of Fast Reactors. We focus on France, Germany, United Kingdom, Spain and Italy, from now up to 2040, for the technology is supposed to be available by then. These conditions can be either favorable or not to FRs compared to all other technologies (gas, coal, wind…), according to 3 main drivers for investment in electricity capacities: “technical change”, i.e. relative evolutions of efficiency and costs of technologies; “policy”, i.e. incentive framework given by European energy policies (nuclear, climate…); “economic”, i.e. structure of electricity markets (level of centralization, financing methods…). 24 scenarios are identified through structural analysis and interviews of experts, 3 of them proving to be favorable to FRs are discussed in view of the drivers mentioned above.