On the Post-impact Evaluation of Tourism Crisis based on Background Trend Curve - The response analysis of Xi'an Qin Terracotta Warriors and Horses Museum to 3 emergent events

摘要

After the analyzing the flaws of "neighboring year comparison method" in the evaluation of tourism crisis, the post-impact evaluation method on events of tourism crisis was put forward based on the theory of background trend curve. Using the statistics data of Qin Terracotta Warriors and Horses Museum (named as the Museum for short afterwards) from 1980 to 2005, the three tourism background trend curves of inbound tourism, domestic tourism and tourist receipts was founded, the post-impact evaluation on tourism of the three emergent events of "6.4" Incident in 1989, Asian Finance Crisis in 1998 and SARS in 2003 was studied, revealing the losses of tourist arrivals, tourist receipts and impact duration, thus providing a new theory and solution to the research of post-impact evaluation of tourism crisis of emergent events.