A hybrid fuzzy modeling method to improve the strategic scenarios design. : Integrating Artificial Intelligence algorithms and the field of Futures Studies methods

摘要

The aim of this article is to investigate the role of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM) and foresight techniques in supporting strategic foresight to reduce uncertainty in the field of Futures Studies. The combination of these approaches helps to better understand the future alternatives available to decision-makers by combining storytelling with trend extrapolation using a proposed new hybrid process called FLighTS (Future Lighthouse Trending Scenarios). Thus, in the process of determining the most appropriate future, it is possible to reduce the uncertainty due to vague and ambiguous value judgments in the process of inference of decision makers.The work presented in this article aims to improve the combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches to facilitate further exploration of the possibilities of a new non-linear way of thinking about the future. The article includes a conceptual model and an experimental example that develops a case for a higher education institution (HEI).The article ends with a reflection on conceptual modeling and suggests ways for use in future research.