The study of Kunming's financial risk early warning based on the perspective of financial ecological environment

摘要

Good financial ecological environment and a sound financial risk early warning mechanism is the important guarantee of financial risk prevention and degeneration. The article based on the eye-view of financial ecological environment, choosing a quantity and appropriate financial risk index system which is maximum features economy condition, financial development, good faith and the rule of law under the government behavior; Using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), entropy value method, BP artificial neural network to build, train and test the Kunming financial risk early warning model; meanwhile, combining the secondary exponential smoothing method to forecast the future financial risks over the next two years; The study predicted results showing that, Kunming's financial risk degrees are 0.1039 and 0.0877 in 2012 and 2013 respectively, indicating that over the next two years Kunming's financial operation in a safe range.