Leading indicator for the Foreign Trade Container Throughput in China Water Transport

摘要

Large variations in container shipping have received widespread attention in recent years. Theses variations are the leading indicator for China's foreign trade container transport and are mainly investigated to provide effective early warning methods. First, the effects of domestic and international macroeconomic situation on China's foreign trade container transport are analyzed. The key influence factors and fluctuation characteristic are discussed. Second, the four monitoring indexes, including new export orders index of China, China's electricity generation, America's consumer-confidence index and the inventories/sales ratios of America's merchant wholesalers, are presented. Finally, a composite leading indicator for China's foreign trade container throughput is proposed by the principal component analysis method. The trial operation result demonstrates the validity of the proposed indicator.