Time-Series Comparison of Auto/Motorcycle Ownership and Mode Choice Models in an Ever Changing Transportation Environment in Jakarta, Indonesia

摘要

This paper presents the results of household auto/motorcycle ownership and mode choice models that were respectively developed based on the two large-scale travel surveys which were conducted nearly a decade apartfrom each other. In the meantime, in the Jakarta Metropolitan Area, there were unprecedented changes in thetransportation environment such as growth in vehicle ownership and resulting change in mode shares. Thispaper then makes a time-series comparison of the models and discusses implications of such drastic changesthat occurred in Jakarta. Interpretation of the effects of different types of variables including basic travel,household, and individual characteristics in the models estimated for 2002 and 2010 led to several interestinginsights in light of the change in the transportation environment as well as the increase in complexity of thetravel behavior in Jakarta. So long as the context of the society will not change, both models should remainunchanged with fixed parameters over a period of time. However, the models that were estimated based on thesurveys conducted nearly a decade apart have indicated quite different parameters with different degrees ofsignificance. Though further investigation is necessary, transferability of those disaggregate choice modelsmay not always apply in urban areas of the developing world such as Jakarta, even though the model structuremay remain the same. Such implications may also be important and hence worth studying for other urbanareas though similarities may be restricted to regions that share modal and cultural norms in common.