IDENTIFYING HABITATS OF RED PANDA (AILURUS F. FULGENS) IN SAKTENG WILDLIFE SANCTUARY, BHUTAN IN MAXENT USING CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS

摘要

The red panda is a globally endangered species whose population is reported to be declining in the wild. It is a priority species for Sakteng Wildlife Sanctuary (SWS) since the frequency of disturbance from semi-nomadic inhabitants is relatively high in the landscape Moreover, this landscape functions as an important connecting link between red panda habitats in state of Arunachal Pradesh (India) and Bhutan. Little research has been done on the spatial habitat distribution of the red panda in SWS. Lack of such information remains a challenge while implementing effective and holistic conservation initiatives. Therefore, this study attempts to identify the spatial distribution of potential habitats for red panda using the maximum entropy algorithm (Maxent 3.4.1). The mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Biol 1) was the major predictor of habitat suitability for the red panda in SWS The model predicted 226km2 of potential habitat with the current climate scenario Out of the total predicted habitats, less than 25 percent were within the core zones while the remaining 75 percent falls in multiple-use areas, timber extraction sites and buffer zone that are likely to experience a relatively high frequency of anthropogenic disturbances. With climate change, predicted potential habitats are likely to experience significant loss and an upward shift to a relatively higher elevation. The predicted shift towards higher elevation is likely to make red panda more vulnerable to disturbances from semi-nomadic communities who practice extensive grazing at higher elevations Irrespective of any present or future emission mitigation endeavor, the natural system will probably experience the change as a consequence of already occurring climate change Hence, the management of SWS should priorities on the identification and accomplishment of realistic goals that help the red panda adapt to predicted changes or new habitats in the landscape