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Designing Informative Securities

机译:设计信息性证券

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摘要

We create a formal framework for the design of informative securities in prediction markets. These securities allow a market organizer to infer the likelihood of events of interest as well as if he knew all of the traders' private signals. We consider the design of markets that are always informative, markets that are informative for a particular signal structure of the participants, and informative markets constructed from a restricted selection of securities. We find that to achieve informativeness, it can be necessary to allow participants to express information that may not be directly of interest to the market organizer, and that understanding the participants' signal structure is important for designing informative prediction markets.
机译:我们为预测市场中的信息证券设计创建了一个正式的框架。这些证券使市场组织者可以推断出感兴趣事件的可能性以及他是否知道所有交易者的私人信号。我们考虑始终提供信息的市场,为参与者的特定信号结构提供信息的市场,以及从有限的证券选择中构建的信息市场。我们发现,要获得信息量,可能有必要让参与者表达市场组织者可能不直接感兴趣的信息,并且了解参与者的信号结构对于设计信息预测市场非常重要。

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