Forecasting Market Shares of Environment-Friendly Vehicles by Using a Choice Experiment reflecting intangible costs

摘要

Although the consumer’s preference for hybrid electric vehicles or battery electric vehicles may be influenced byintangible costs including projected market shares, reliability of new technology, and regulation of GHG emissions,previous studies have typically employed methods based on static preferences to estimate the non-market value ofenvironment-friendly vehicles (EFVs). This study, by contrast, examines the consumer’s preference for EFVs by employinga choice experiment reflecting the intangible costs and forecasts potential market shares of the EFVs based on the changesin intangible costs. The primary results estimated by a multinomial logit model indicate that coefficient estimates ofattributes such as sales price, fuel cost, maximum speed, cruise range, and CO_2 emission were significantly affected bydifferent scenarios for intangible costs. In addition, the results suggest that consumers’ education and responsiveness tonew technologies can influence their preference for EFVs. Finally, as intangible costs are mitigated gradually, forecastedmarket shares of the hybrid and electric vehicles increase accordingly. In conclusion, we found that intangible costsinfluence significantly consumer’s preference on a new technology such as the EFVs. Government and manufacturingcompanies for developing the EFVs should focus on mitigation of intangible costs and differentiated marketing on moreeducated and early adaptive consumer groups on new technology.