Research on Contingency Plans of Sudden Natural Disasters Based on System Dynamics Model

摘要

Recently, sudden natural disasters frequently keep occurring,with a result of causing serious damages to the mass' life property and the social order.Emergency management of suddun public events has been paid more attention by governments at all levels. In order to alleviate effectively the loss caused by sudden public events, governments at all levels set actively out to explore and perfect all kinds of contingency plans of sudden public events. However, how to formulate contingency plans having the most effect on dealing with sudden public events still lacks necessary argument. This study discusses the basic factors about contingency plans of sudden public events based on system dynamics and develops a model of contingency plans through the exploration from the aspect of dynamic development.