CROSS-ENTROPY METHOD FOR RELIABILITY WORTH ASSESSMENT OF RENEWABLE GENERATING SYSTEMS

摘要

This work presents a new methodology to evaluate generating capacity reliability indices, with particular emphasis on the Loss of Load Cost. Based on the pseudo-chronological Monte Carlo simulation and the Cross-Entropy method, the main idea is to obtain an optimal distortion for the generation model in order to promote the occurrences of failure events and reduce the variance of the estimators. As a result, the computational efforts of the pseudo-chronological simulation can be greatly reduced while retaining all of its advantages. The proposed method can capture all the actual blocks of un-supplied energy per consumer class and their respective durations to accurately characterize the interruption process. In addition, many chronological aspects such as the fluctuation of generating capacities and scheduling maintenance can be easily included in the simulation model. Comparisons with the chronological and standard pseudo-chronological simulations are reported using several test systems and configurations of real power systems.