Global Nuclear Public Opinion and Policy Implications: A Cross-National Analysis of Surveys and Polls on Nuclear Security and Nonproliferation

摘要

Most existing public opinion research on nuclear policy is devoted to civilian issues such as risk perception and communication with very little research conducted to understand the global landscape of public opinion on "hard" issues of nuclear policy such as nonproliferation and nuclear security. This paucity of research is largely due to the fact that such hard issues are of direct military implications and thus subject to a range of information shortage and access controls. In this study we have assembled a comprehensive set of public opinion survey items on nuclear security and nonproliferation from 8 international surveys covering up to 49 countries between 2005 and 2011. These items address a range of issues such as the use of the military force for nonproliferation, prohibition of nuclear fuel development even for peaceful use out of concern for proliferation, and the likelihood of international agreement to eliminate all nuclear weapons. Our analysis of reveals large variation in nuclear public opinion between nuclear and nonnuclear states. In order to understand the sources of such cross-national variation, we have also conducted a correlational analysis drawing on Spearman's rank correlation due to small sample size. This correlational analysis also shows significant linkages of public opinion on nonproliferation and nuclear security with the levels of nuclear security levels as well as with national cultures. Our study holds important policy implications, as the great diversity in global public opinion on nuclear security and nonproliferation implies significant challenges to international coordination and negotiation on nonproliferation issues. As effective domestic nuclear policy essentially builds on public consensus, one cannot overemphasize the importance of understanding the pattern and source of public opinion as a driver of nuclear policy.