A Mathematical Model for HIV Epidemic among Men who Have Sex with Men in China

摘要

HIV among men who have sex with men has become more and more serious in recent years. A differential model is developed in this article. The stability of disease-free equilibrium and the persistence of the disease are obtained. The basic reproduction number is estimated as 3.712. Prediction of the epidemic shows the total number of patients will reach to its peak in 2019. We give some results of the intervention measures, which implies that protection measures should be further advocated among the MSM and our government should pay more attention to this group, strive for a larger diagnose rate.