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Application of BP Neural Network in History Match and Productivity Prediction of Coalbed Methane

机译:BP神经网络在煤层气历史拟合及产能预测中的应用

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Serious heterogeneity of coalbed, specific production process and complex laws of porosity-permeability changes during the producing period make mathematics models with superfluous assumptions very difficult to accurately describe coal reservoir so that they are not suitable for matching coalbed methane (CBM) well history gas production and forecasting it. As a new intelligent technique, BP neural network can be used for deal with nonlinear, non-stationary and complicated system problems, and it can quantitatively predict the short-term changes. Taking the case of a CBM well located in the south of Qinshui Basin which is the biggest production base of CBM in China, BP neural model for CBM productivity based on different temporal resolutions was established in this paper, and was applied to history match and quantitative prediction for gas production of CBM wells. The results show BP neural model can successfully match the production data and quantitatively predict it in different temporal resolutions. Meanwhile, the lower the temporal resolution is, the higher fitting and predicting accuracy the model has; while the higher the temporal resolution is, the clearer the model describes the changes of productivity in details.
机译:煤层的严重非均质性,特定的生产过程以及生产期间孔隙度-渗透率变化的复杂规律使得带有多余假设的数学模型很难准确地描述煤层,因此它们不适合匹配煤层气(CBM)井历史的天然气产量并进行预测。 BP神经网络作为一种新的智能技术,可以用于处理非线性,非平稳和复杂的系统问题,并且可以定量地预测短期变化。以中国最大的煤层气生产基地沁水盆地南部的煤层气井为例,建立了基于不同时间分辨率的煤层气产能BP神经网络模型,并将其应用于历史匹配和定量分析中煤层气井天然气产量预测。结果表明,BP神经模型可以成功匹配生产数据并在不同的时间分辨率下对其进行定量预测。同时,时间分辨率越低,模型的拟合和预测精度越高;时间分辨率越高,模型越清晰地描述生产力的变化。

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