Land Use Change through ugh Microsimulation of Market Dynamics:An Agent-based Model of Land Development and Locator Bidding in Austin, Texas

摘要

A variety of land use models now exist, but a market-based model with sufficient spatialresolution and defensible behavioral foundations remains elusive. The model system developedhere emphasizes the interactions of individual market agents (on both the demand and supplysides), and enjoys behavioral foundations for each of the key actors at the level of parcels.Auction (or competition among market agents) is used to simulate price adjustment, and market38clearing prices are endogenously determined by iteratively adjusting the bidding prices forresidential and commercial properties.A series of models for households, firms, and land developers/owners are estimated usingactual data from Austin, Texas, and the estimation results reveal tangible behavioral foundationsfor the evolution of urban land uses. The model forecasts demonstrate the strengths andlimitations of this market simulation approach. While equilibrium prices in forecast years are.