Equipment Replacement Optimization: Part I. Solution Methodology,Statistical Data Analysis, and Cost Forecasting

摘要

In this paper, we first conduct a comprehensive literature review of the state-oftheart and state-of-the practice of the equipment replacement optimization (ERO) problem. Acomprehensive dynamic programming (DP) based optimization solution methodology is thenproposed and implemented to solving the ERO problem. The developed ERO software consistsof three main components: 1) A SAS Macro based Data Cleaner and Analyzer, which undertakesthe tasks of raw data reading, cleaning and analyzing, as well as cost estimation & forecasting; 2)A DP-based optimization engine that minimizes the total cost over a defined horizon; and 3) AJava based Graphical User Interface (GUI) that takes parameters selected by and inputs fromusers and coordinates the Optimization Engine and SAS Macro Data Cleaner and Analyzer. Thefirst component (i.e., the SAS macro based Data Cleaner and Analyzer), is presented in detail.Preliminary numerical results of the SAS data analysis, estimation and forecasting of severalcosts are also discussed. Then in a following paper, the DP-based optimization engine and EROsoftware development (including the Java GUI) are presented in detail and comprehensive EROnumerical results are given.