A JOINT MODEL OF PARTICIPATION IN NON-WORK ACTIVITIES AND TIME-OF-DAY CHOICE SET FORMATION FOR WORKERS

摘要

Non-work activity and travel participation is an important component of overall travel demandthat is complex to model as the greater degrees of flexibility associated with such travel induceslarger variability and randomness in this behavior. This paper aims to offer a framework formodeling the participation in and travel mileage allocated to non-work activities during varioustime periods of the day for workers. Five time-of-day blocks are defined for workers based onthe period of the day in relation to the work schedule. Individuals can choose to pursue non-workactivities in one or multiple time blocks and travel miles to accomplish the activities. A multiplediscrete-continuous extreme value (MCDEV) modeling approach is employed to model thisphenomenon. A unique element of the paper is the addition of a latent choice set generationmodel as a first component in the model system. This choice set generation model can be usedto determine the set of time-of-day periods that each individual will consider for the pursuit ofnon-work activities, while recognizing the fact that the consideration choice set is not explicitlyobserved (and is therefore latent) by the analyst. Thus, the model system presented in this paperis capable of modeling non-work activity engagement and associated travel mileage by time-of16day period while incorporating varying choice sets across individuals. The two-componentmodel system is applied to a survey sample drawn from the San Francisco area of the UnitedStates, and shown to perform substantially better than a pure MDCEV model that assumes aconstant choice set across the sample.