Plug-in Hybrid Vehicle GHG Impacts in California: Integrating Consumer-Informed Recharge Profiles with an Electricity-Dispatch Model

摘要

ABSTRACTEstimating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) ischallenging because PHEVs are powered by gasoline and grid electricity—in a variety ofproportions across individual consumers. Previous GHG estimates emissions postulateconsumer behavior and simplify interactions with the electricity grid. We construct PHEVemissions scenarios to address inherent relationships between vehicle design, driving andrecharging behaviors, seasonal and time-of-day variation in GHG-intensity of electricity, andtotal GHG emissions. From a survey of 877 California new vehicle buyers we elicit drivingpatterns, time of day recharge access, and PHEV design interests. The elicited data differsubstantially from those used in previous analyses—including substantial interest in PHEVswith no true all-electric driving. We construct electricity demand profiles scaled to onemillion PHEVs and input them into an hourly California electricity supply model to simulateGHG emissions scenarios. Compared to conventional vehicles, consumer-designed PHEVscut marginal (incremental) GHG emissions by more than one third in current Californiaenergy scenarios and by a quarter in future energy scenarios—reductions similar to thosesimulated for all-electric PHEV designs. Across the emissions scenarios realization of longtermGHG reductions depends on reducing the carbon intensity of the grid.