Incremental Integration of Land Use and Activity-based Travel Modeling:Workplace Choices and Travel Demand

摘要

Recent advances in activity-based travel modeling and in integrated land use and transportation modeling havesignificantly advanced understanding and capacity to model location choices and travel behavior more realistically,but these advances come with greater data requirement and the risk and substantial cost in adopting them haveslowed their move to operational use. This purpose of this research is two folded. Firstly, we propose anincremental approach that more carefully balances the risks and benefits of moving operational models in newdirections. This paper addresses one aspect of this incremental approach: replacement of the home-based workdestination choice model within the 4-step travel model system with a pair of choice models at the individual workerlevel, implemented as long-term choices in the linked land use model system. Secondly, our models also provide away to derive matches between workers and their workplace with commonly available data. These matchescomplement synthetic populations and provide a key input for activity-based travel models. Our models predictwhether a worker will choose to work at home on a long-term basis, and if not, then choose an out-of-home job.These models link an individual worker to a specific job at a workplace, and therefore directly predict commutingpatterns. We present the model specification, estimation results, and results of validating the models againstobserved commuting data from the Census Transportation Planning Package. The model reproduces observedcommuting flows quite well, and computational performance is fast, in spite of operating at the individual workerand job level.