Simulating the Impact of Different Control Policy on Private Car in Beijing: A System Dynamics Approach

摘要

Considering more economic means should be taken in future instead of the current new car restriction policy in Beijing which has been criticized for its unfairness. Different policy effect on private car in Beijing should be simulated to help transport policy makers make decision. The system dynamic model is built for analysis of private cars under different policies in Beijing. Firstly, by dividing the model into three sub modules including population, economic, and private car, the private car ownership was calculated based on micro-level personal income and automobile annual costs. Secondly, the private car numbers, age distribution, new car sales, and scrappage during the year of 2000-2020 were analyzed based on the simulation result. Finally, the effect of different policies on private cars ownership and new car sales in Beijing was showed through scenario analyze.