Road safety strategies: An analysis with system dynamics

摘要

This paper constructs a system dynamics model in order to analyze the evolution over time of the number of traffic accidents in a generic region in which different scenarios are considered. Mainly, a set of three instruments is used to fight against them: information campaigns, traffic legislation and a monitoring system. The structure of the model is assembled by considering two aspects. First, the influence of the instruments on the causes of the traffic accidents and then, the structure takes into account how authorities adapt the intensity of the instruments in according to certain target. The simulation model integrates several non-linear relationships and delayed links in addition to two random elements. A Monte-Carlo simulation is employed to obtain significant paths of traffic accidents under different scenarios and public strategies. The simulation results exhibit how the instruments work in every scenario and its global efficiency. The best solution is not always the same. Sometimes, the lower number of traffic accidents requires that the instruments are used continuously, but on occasions, it is obtained when the instruments are used intensively. Then, under a tight budget, the implementation of a public road safety strategy requires a special analysis of costs and efficiency.