QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS FOR A DAM UNDER CONSTRUCTION IN SPAIN

摘要

Full quantitative risk assessment of Castrovido Dam (a gravity dam under construction) has included gathering and analyzing hydrologic data and projected conditions, working sessions to identify failure modes and make estimates by expert judgment as well as probabilistic analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations, among main tasks. The work is presented is particularly relevant as a complete example of a dam risk analysis during construction phase, with the benefit of drawing conclusions in advance to improve dam safety management. The most important point for stakeholders is the possibility of evaluating different scenarios, including the situation before and after dam construction, as well as the effect of the Dam Emergency Action Plan on risk reduction. Furthermore, this analysis can be used in the future (incorporating, for example, monitoring and surveillance outcomes) for reevaluating dam conditions within a continuous reviewing process, with the aim to achieve a more robust understanding for prioritizing investments and decision making. Finally, some considerations on USACE risk guidelines for new dams are made as uncertainties before finishing the construction and operating the dam have remarkable influence in risk estimates.