Research on technological trajectories based on patent documents and related empirical study

摘要

Technological innovation and progress always follow a certain direction and trajectory. In the era of emerging technologies, people want to pre-identify the trajectories of technological development to help them work out strategies and response measures. In this paper, theory, models and empirical analysis was integrated. The paper conducts the analysis of emerging technologies to determine potential for development and future direction from the perspective of the patent and analysis of patent data. First introduces the definition and development of technological trajectories. The application and limit of S-curve method when used in the research on technological trajectories has also been analyzed. Using patent information to discuss industrial technological trajectories has been proposed, and an empirical research on laptop batteries has been given. Forecasting the ending of existing battery technology and the beginning of future technology has been considered as key problem, therefore three problems have been analyzed: increment of patent quantity, technology updating speed, stakeholders.