Interdependency modeling and analysis of critical infrastructures based on Dynamic Bayesian Networks

摘要

This paper presents a novel approach to the critical infrastructure (CI) interdependencies analysis, based on the Dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN) formalism. Our original modeling procedure divides the DBN in three levels: an atomic events level, which models the adverse events impacting on the analyzed CIs, a propagation level, which captures CI interdependencies, and a services level, which allows to monitor the state of provided services. Three types of analyses can be performed: a reliability study, an adverse events propagation study, and a failure identification analysis. A case study provided by Israel Electric Corporation is considered, and explicative simulations are presented and discussed in detail.