Structural Reliability Analysis of the Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft

摘要

A structural reliability assessment of the Advanced Composite Cargo Aircraft was performed to assess the risk on this aircraft. Ten locations on the fuselage and three locations on the vertical tail were analyzed. Probability distributions for the applied loads were derived from the fatigue test spectrum. Probability distributions for the structural strengths were obtained from test coupon data. The probability of failure per flight hour at each location was calculated using Monte Carlo simulation or spreadsheet integration. The resulting conservative probabilities of failure per flight hour ranged from less than 10~(-11) to greater than 10~(-2). Recommendations are made for incorporating reliability analysis into the design process for a future reliability-based structural certification.