Long-term CO_2 emissions abatement in the power sector and the influence of renewable power

摘要

This study investigates influences of Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRES), i.e. solar and wind power, on the CO_2 emissions of the global electricity sector and on the certificate price. We use an energy system model based on linear programming. It may be applied to optimize capacity extensions in power generation, transport, and storage under different framework conditions. Here, long term abatement in the power sector with a special focus on the influence of VRES is studied. When a time horizon from 2020 to 2040 was taken into account, optimization results showed that wind energy is extensively employed to meet ambitious emissions reduction targets. In 2020, total wind capacity reaches 4570 GW and rises to 15285 GW by 2040; extension of wind power at this level allows limiting CO_2 emissions of the power sector to 6107 million tons in 2020- i.e. 35% reduction compared to the year 2000; it reduces to 2067 million tons by 2040, while the certificate price rises to 61 €/ton. This can only be realized if cross-border interconnections are extended far beyond the current levels. If grid extensions are not allowed, over-installation of capacities up to 18% is unavoidable to satisfy the proposed CO_2-limit in 2040. In this case, the certificate price shows a significant increase to 147 €/ton by 2040.