Long-Term Estimates of U.S. National Wind Tunnel Demand for NASA Aeronautics Test Program (ATP) using a Probabilistic Model

摘要

Long-term (five-to-ten-year) projections of wind-tunnel testing demand for national-class facilities are notoriously difficult to generate given the variability of government aerospace agendas, plans, and programs. This paper presents a Monte Carlo model that considers the problem as a function of the likelihood of a program start and the wind-tunnel testing demands of new and existing programs. We provide examples on how to apply this model and of the insights it offers decisionmakers on future wind-tunnel testing requirements.