A TEMPORAL LOGICAL METHODOLOGY FOR PROBABILISTIC VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF SPACE MISSIONS: APPLICATION TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS OF AN EARTH OBSERVATION MISSION DUE TO CATALOGUED SPACE DEBRIS

摘要

Vulnerability assessment to a given potential risk is an important step in the design of a space system, or of itsmission, and could help to improve its lifetime or the quality of the services it is designed for. Due to the growth inspace activities, space debris have become a serious threat for operational satellites. In this paper, a method isproposed to analyse the vulnerability of an Earth observation mission due to catalogued space debris. Thevulnerability is computed as a difference in the mission's performance which is evaluated for different scenarios ofthe threat by a temporal logical probabilistic methodology. Numerical results are provided to illustrate each step ofthe proposed approach.