Estimation of CO_2 Mitigation Potential from Freight Transport Based on System Dynamics Model—A Case Study of Beijing, China

摘要

Freight transport has increased rapidly with the raid economic growth, leading to rising energy consumption and CO2 emission. In this paper, taking the urban freight transport of Beijing as a case, three scenarios are established to evaluate the potential of CO_2 emission reduction based on system dynamics model. Scenario results show that freight turnover of Beijing will touch 80 billion t-km at the end of 2020, with an annual average growth rate around 5%, and the CO_2 emission mitigation potential range from 13-30% by 2020.