Vulnerability Analysis of Disaster Risk Based on Geographic Information and Dempster-Shafer Theory

摘要

Vulnerability analysis of human society in natural hazard is confronted with uncertainty and complex factors in given geographic area. The assessment of vulnerability is significant for decision-makers and their spatial planning exercises. However, vulnerability is hard to use quantity analysis because of the uncertainty in both model and data. In our approach, the exposure zone of hazard is introduced by using hazard model and GIS. Considering the uncertainty, the vulnerability is represented as language variables, and Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is used as the mathematic foundation of vulnerability analysis. Based on the frame of discernment of vulnerability variables and criteria of human perception, the mass functions of evidence theory are designed. An example is given to illustrate the proposed methods.