SHORT-TERM OPTIMIZATION MODEL WITH ESP FORECASTS FOR COLUMBIA HYDROPOWER SYSTEM WITH OPTIMIZED MULTI-TURBINE POWERHOUSES

摘要

This paper describes efforts to develop a computational laboratory to evaluate the advantages of alternative stochastic short-term scheduling models for a 10-project subsystem of the federal reservoirs on the Columbia and Snake River systems operated jointly by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the Bureau of Reclamation, and the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA). The analysis considers variable time step lengths increasing from 4 to 8 to 24 hours; economic and non-economic turbine dispatch with operational constraints; and inflow and load uncertainty (reflecting wind generation) through use of Ensemble Streamflow Predictions (ESP) augmented to include load uncertainties (ESLP). Synthetic ESLPs will be generated for the model testing effort. A project goal is to evaluate the advantages of alternative representations of economics, operations, and uncertainty subject to all of the operational constraints, both physical and those that result from environmental concerns.