Development of Research Paradigm of the Early-Warning Financial Crises: A Pressure-State-Impact-Response Methodological Framework

摘要

This article illustrates a new research paradigm for financial crises forecasting. Using the Pressure-State-Impact-Response conception framework, a loop paradigm in which divides the problem of financial crisis early warning into pressure, state, impact and response is developed. Its characteristic of circular elements mobility can display the relation among the investors, markets and policy.