States should view potential elements of the FMCT through four perspectives: 1)impact on national security if the treaty enters into force – including potentialadversaries; 2) national security threats arising from treaty implementation, e.g.,from presence within or near sensitive facilities; 3) impact on internationalsecurity, nonproliferation and efforts aimed at the eventual elimination of nuclearweapons; and 4) costs, both as necessary to support treaty-mandated operationswithin the state and the costs for international verification. Referring to theinternational nonproliferation regime as the starting point, the paper will discussthe calculus of treaty negotiations reflecting the rational analysis of these fourperspectives, plus macro-influences arising within nuclear-armed states andwithin non-weapon states, and bloc dynamics.
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