FORECASTING SOUTHERN PLAINS WIND RAMP EVENTS USING THE WRF MODEL AT 3-KM

摘要

Wind ramp events-extreme and rapid changes in wind power output due to abruptchanges in wind speed-are a growing concern for the wind energy industry; therefore, preciseforecasting of these phenomena is crucial to the advancement of wind power in the United States.Weather Decision Technologies, Inc., (WDT) is partnering with NanoWeather, Inc., to create a windforecasting system, called WindPredictorTM, in order to precisely predict winds (and, in turn, ramps)for the energy industry. WDT’s contribution to WindPredictor will be a customized version of theWeather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is currently being run on a 3-km grid. Thispaper assesses the 3-km WRF’s performance regarding ramp event prediction. A comparisonbetween surface wind forecasts and hourly METAR observations was utilized to assess itsperformance.