Construction Risk Analysis of the Yellow River Flood Control Project Based on Probability

摘要

According to the Yellow River flood control project of Wuzhuang in Xinxiang, construction risk recognition is done by using analytic hierarchy process based on environment analysis and structure decomposition of the construction system. After the weight of the level elements is sorted and their relative important grade is judged, the important risk factors and the main risk models of the construction system are obtained. By analyzing the probability distribution of uncertain influencing factors and recognizing parameters of the probability distribution with proper methods, the risk factor probability model of the Yellow River flood control project is studied. Based on BP neural network, risk probability analysis of rainfall is done, and based on Monte Carlo (MC) method and Latin Hypercube (LH)method, the risk probability of flood is calculated in the case of analytical solution which is difficult to be obtained. Day prediction with the number of days of rainfall greater than 10mm is calculated, and flood risk of the Wuzhuang project is close to the operation of the Xiaolangdi reservoir. That plays a guidance role in making a construction decision of the control project of Wuzhuang and also provides an effective and feasible new way for risk probability analysis of the Yellow River flood control projects.