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ASSESSING UNCERTAINTY OF COALBED METHANE RESOURCES

机译:煤层气资源评估不确定度

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While estimating reserves for coal, oil and natural [conventional] gas is relatively routine and standarised, resource calculations for gas in coal is neither. Because gas in coal is held in such a fundamentally different way than in conventional gas reservoirs, these variables should be derived commensurate with coal-gas properties. Thus, a methodology has been developed to determine resource size and to assign uncertainty around those estimates.The underlying tenet for assessing a resource should be to understand the uncertainty around the key components of the estimation process. For coalbed methane those components are rock volume and gas content. Rock volume needs to take into account the area, coal bed thickness and density of the organic material, while gas volume needs to assess the adsorption properties of the coal and likely saturation levels. A refined assessment also considers the level (%) of gas types such as CH_4, CO_2, C_2H_6 etc. By defining the uncertainty of each of these parameter estimates (most simply in terms of worst, base and best case, or more completely as parameter distributions), and potentially any correlation between these parameters, it is possible to undertake probabilistic analyses to quantify the uncertainty of the gas resources. Acceptable limits of uncertainty will be a reflection of individual investor's appetite for risk. Defining uncertainty allows a fairly objective means of distilling geological data into levels of probability.
机译:虽然估计煤炭,石油和天然气的储量是相对常规和标准的,但计算煤炭中的天然气的资源却并非如此。由于煤中的气体与传统储气库中的储气方式根本不同,因此应根据煤气特性推导这些变量。因此,已经开发出一种方法来确定资源规模并为这些估计值分配不确定性。 评估资源的基本原则应该是了解估计过程关键组成部分的不确定性。对于煤层气,这些成分是岩石体积和气体含量。岩石体积需要考虑面积,煤层厚度和有机物的密度,而气体体积需要评估煤的吸附特性和可能的​​饱和度。完善的评估还考虑了诸如CH_4,CO_2,C_2H_6等气体类型的水平(%)。通过定义每个参数估计值的不确定性(最简单的是根据最坏情况,基本情况和最佳情况,或更完整地作为参数)分布)以及这些参数之间可能的任何相关性,可以进行概率分析以量化天然气资源的不确定性。可接受的不确定性极限将反映个人投资者的风险偏好。定义不确定性允许使用相当客观的方法将地质数据提炼为概率级别。

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