Demand for oil products in OPEC countries: A panel Cointegration Analysis

摘要

The increasing consumption of oil-refined products on OPEC countries will have its impact on the availability of oil exports. The goal of this paper is to examine the determinants of oil refined products) consumption for a panel consisting of 9 OPEC countries, namely, Algeria(1), Kuwait(2), Libya(3), Qatar(4), Saudi Arabia(5), United Emirates(6), Indonesia(7), Iran(8) Venezuela(9). for the period 1980–2007, by employing the recently developed panel data unit root tests and panel data cointegration techniques. Furthermore, conditional on finding cointegration, the paper extends the literature by employing the Pedroni Panel Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) , Dynamic OLS (DOLS) procedure to generate consistent estimates of the relevant panel variables. Four refined products are used Gasoline Fuel oil, Kerosene and Fuel oil. The estimated coefficients for the Gasoline demand are for the per capita income ( Y_(it) ) is positive and statistically significant, for (FMOLS) methods is equal 0.17, and for the (DOLS) equal 0.24 for the group. While the coefficient for domestic price is negative and significant and for (FMOLS) equal -0.12, (DOLS) equal -0.15 for the group. For Fuel oil; for the per capita income ( it Y ) is positive but not significant, for (FMOLS) methods is equal 0.025, and for the (DOLS) equal 0.106 for the group. While the coefficient for domestic price is negative and significant and for (FMOLS) equal -0.162, (DOLS) equal -0.036 for the group. For Kerosene the coefficients for income are significant and equal to 0.479 FMOLS estimation, and DOLS is 0.361. The price coefficients are significant and equal for the FMOLS estimation is -.058 and for DOLS -0.20. These findings provide strong evidence that Income has a positive effect on consumption on Gasoline and Kerosene but not for Fuel oil and the price has negative effect for three refined products which indicate that prices should be higher to influence the consumption of Gasoline Kerosene and Fuel oil. An attempt is also made to assess the impact of this demand on the future availability of OPEC oil exports.