Model to Calculate the Customer Base-Line for a Demand Response Program in the Colombian Power Market

摘要

This paper presents a method to produce a Baseline electricity consumption model to be used by the first Demand Response Program in Colombia. The method responds to the needs of the new regulatory scheme to guarantee the reliability in the supply of the electric energy in Colombia called the Reliability Charge, which includes a voluntary load reduction (VLR) program in the form of a contingency mechanism. According to the international experience, a voluntary load reduction programs have been design to operate when the expected demand surpasses the maximum installed capacity; these situation usually occur at the peak periods and have a short duration. The objective of the VLR is then to translate high peak consumptions to lower periods of consumption in exchange of an incentive.In the Colombian scenario, the method must be designed to cover scarcity of hydro resources. For this reason, the System Operator (ISO) requires a methodology to calculate a proper Base-Line from which could determine an effective reduction. Then, the authors propose a statistical method appropriate to be used for time series with the following characteristics: ⅰ) Easy to implement and upgradeable ⅱ) Flexible and as General as possible. ⅲ) Must take into account seasonality, slope and level change. ⅳ) Generates a value that indicates accuracy to estimate the forecasted values of the CBL.