The Fictionization and Dual-analyzing Framework of Real Estate Market

摘要

Real estate is a dualistic industry. On one hand, it is a subsector of real economy; on the other hand, it has an attribute with very strong fictitious economy, mainly reflecting in such aspects as the strong price fluctuation, autonomous capital proliferation and capital fictionization. As a result, when analyzing whether the market price of the real estate deviates from its value, we should not only take into account of housing price-to-income ratio, real estate vacancy rate and housing price-to- rent ratio from the point of real economy, but also the money supply, interest, credit and finance liberalization from the point of fictitious economy. In conclusion, this article holds that it makes much more sense to judge and forecast the trend of the real estate market by using fictitious economy than by applying real economy. Further, the management of real estate bubble can not be separated from the support of monetary and financial policies.