TRENDS IN GLOBAL NOISE AND EMISSIONS FROM COMMERCIAL AVIATION FOR 2000 THROUGH 2025

摘要

In 1983, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) established the Committee on Aviation and Environmental Protection (CAEP) to assess aviation-related noise and emissions issues. CAEP has established three environmental goals: limit or reduce the number of people impacted by noise; limit or reduce the impact of aviation emissions on local air quality (LAQ); and limit or reduce the impact of aviation greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on the global climate.With CAEP goals in mind, this paper presents trends in aviation noise, fuel burn, and emissions based on demand growth met by currently available aircraft types. Noise trends are expressed in terms of population exposed to various day-night average sound levels (DNL). Aggregated global data are presented, as well as data on a regional level for baseline years of 2000 through 2005, as well as for the future years of 2010, 2015, 2020 and 2025.The trends presented herein were developed to support the 7th Meeting of CAEP in February 2007 and represent an initial assessment against which future developments in technology, operational and air traffic management practice, and changes in demand, can be assessed. In support of the 8th Meeting of CAEP in February 2008, the trends will be updated and will include a number of improvements, including consideration of improvements in aircraft and operational technology as well as a revised traffic forecast. The result will be a more realistic set of trends for CAEP/8. The noise, LAQ, and GHG results presented herein should be considered an upper bound to future trends.It is envisioned that these types of trends assessments have broad applicability and can be used to support a variety of national and international requirements, including policy establishment.