ADVANCED METHODOLOGIES FOR AVERAGE PROBABILITY CALCULATION FOR AEROSPACE SYSTEMS

摘要

Airplane manufacturers must certify the airplane systems to be safe for flight. One means of safety certification is by analytic demonstration that the probability of failure in a typical flight is bounded. The probability bound requirement for a system is based on the criticality of system failure. Therefore, probability of failure calculations for these systems is necessary for certification. The probability of failure for a system which can have latent faults is non-constant across flights. So we are led into the concept of "Average Probability of Failure per Flight" or "Average Probability of Failure per Flight Hour ".In this paper we will discuss new methodologies and equations. We will also review and compile previous efforts (many of which are our own) to develop efficient methods and tools to compute the "Average Probability of Failure per Flight" for aerospace systems.