General Equilibrium Analysis of Mid-long Term Energy Intensity Changing Trend in China

摘要

This study builds a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of 22 sectors based on 2002 China input-output table, and forecasts the changing trend of energy intensity by 2030 in China. In this model, capital accumulation is endogenous and household is divided into rural household and urban household. Then according to the scenario setting, the impacts of industrial technology upgrading, energy efficiency improving, and material recycling rate improving on energy intensity are simulated. Finally, this paper gives some policy suggestion.