Can the Baseline of 1.8 Billion Mu Cultivated Land be Retained in China?--A Macro Approach to Land Reservation from Improved-MGM Model

摘要

According to the latest data in the Report of Agricultural Development of China 2007 and Communique on Land and Resources of China 2007, an improved-MGM model to predict the cultivated land from 2008 to 2012 is applied in this paper. Evidence shows that cultivated land would reach 1.812774 billion mu, the precision of prediction comes to 99.255%. The cultivated land will reduce to 1.82055 billion mu in the end of 2008. As the trend grows, the amount would be under the baseline at the end of 2012. Conscientiously, strengthen cultivated land protection, brook no delay.