Study on Supply Chain's Transactional Strategies Based on the Cournot Model Considering the Option Theory

摘要

The fluctuations of the market price bring risk to supply chain's enterprises. As a result, the participants of the supply chain need to sign some forward contracts to buy or sell the intermediate goods to decrease the risk. Here we use a decision model to analyze the risk evasion strategy which considers the option theory to set the price of the forward contracts. And the Cournot model is used to simulate the strategies of supplies. After the analysis of the supply chains' enterprises' decision models, we can see that the supplier and the submitter may adopt different risk evasion strategy. In addition, the strategies of supply chain's enterprises may be affected by the price of final product and the cost of the suppliers.