A NEW INSURANCE LOSS MODEL TO PROMOTE CATASTROPHE INSURANCE MARKET IN INDIA AND PAKISTAN

摘要

Catastrophe loss modelling has been under rapid development in the recent years. This is mainly due to significant demands for natural catastrophe models and their applications in the financial and insurance industry. Computer risk models today are used to evaluate potential losses from future events and provide facilities for better controlling exposure to potential losses. The first generation of earthquake loss model for India subcontinent was developed in the late 1990's and has been used by many insurance and reinsurance companies for various insurance portfolio analyses. In this paper the methodology and preliminary results for a new earthquake model for this region is presented. The seismic hazard, the built environment inventory and the building vulnerabilities are probabilistically convoluted to estimate probabilistic losses. Such results once implemented in user friendly financial software, are used by insurance and reinsurance companies to estimate their potential exposure to seismic hazards. The main advantages of this model are its high resolution stochastic event set, detailed seismic model, and a range of vulnerability functions describing various building types and contents. The new model uses the latest information on regional seismotectonic to develop a new regional seismic hazard model for the Himalayan belt as well as stable Indian shield. This model benefits from a high geographical resolution for the underlying administrative units to capture detailed variation of seismic hazard and to enhance the modelling of soil effect.