SEISMIC HAZARD IN ANDALUSIA REGION (SOUTHERN SPAIN)

摘要

The global objective of the SISMOSAN Project has been to provide a general seismic risk assessment of Andalusian region (Southern Spain) associated with the ground motions expected for a return period of 475 years. The project was financed by Civil Defence of Andalusia and its results will be applied to the definition of regional emergency plans. We present here the study and main results of the first phase of the project, aimed at evaluating seismic hazard. In contrast to most of the previous studies in the region, which were performed for peak ground accelerations (PGA) making use of Intensity-to-PGA relationships, hazard was here calculated in terms of magnitude and using published spectral ground-motion models. Moreover, we have considered distinct models for the Atlantic earthquakes, since the attenuation of those motions seem to be slower, as evidenced by the extensive macroseismic areas of the 1755, 1969 and 2007 earthquakes. A comprehensive revision of the seismic catalogue, as well as of the seismogenic models proposed for the region (including those for North Africa, which is part of the influence area) has been done. In a first step, seismic hazard was evaluated at generic rock sites covering the entire region, using a seismic catalogue homogenized to moment magnitude and considering attenuation models in terms of PGA and spectral ordinates (SA). A Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology was followed using a logic tree, in order to constrain the epistemic uncertainty, including two nodes for different options of zonification and attenuation models. In a second step, a geotechnical characterization of the whole region has been carried out, mainly inferred from geological maps and refined with on-site data, which are combined with rock acceleration estimates, in order to compose hazard maps that incorporate local soil effects.