An analysis of 23 years of NDVI and 32 years of precipitation data on a province level for the Horn of Africa with respect to population and agriculture

摘要

Concerns about the effects of climate change for the poorest countries in the world have been repeatedly expressed. In particular the focus has been on the African Continent. This research analyses the ECMWF precipitation dataset for a period of 32 years and examines the trends in NDVI from the AVHRR Global Area 8-km resolution dataset for the last 23 years. These trends are analysed for the agricultural domain using FAO's AFRICOVER dataset. Particular trends in certain provinces are highlighted and discussed. This analysis is used to examine how the trends relate to the population and the distribution of agricultural land. The work attempts to answer the question as to which provinces in the Horn of Africa with a high population density and a high proportion of agricultural land will possibly experience major changes if these trends continue.