Application of the Fuzzy Simulation in the Evaluation Investment of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

摘要

In this paper, a model for the evaluation of investments in advanced manufacturing technology is developed. The development of the model combines the three dimensions of financial criteria, strategic criteria and risk criteria. The economic criteria is addressed using the fuzzy net present value analysis. And fuzzy variables are used to replace the uncertain variables in the strategic criteria and risk criteria. The analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy set theory are applied to build the model. Then fuzzy simulation is employed to dispose of the evaluation model. Three number values are expressed with the efficient plane method. In this way, the uncertain variable existing in the evaluation process can be well solved. So the result tends further rationally. Finally,the model is utilized to assess three advanced manufacturing technology investment projects.